The labor movement has been all but neutered, and consequently, if it doesn't make swift and dramatic changes, it will be gone as we know it today. Which by the time I am done, you will see I think is a good thing.
The labor movement has become big business. The business union model it embraced corrupted its core principles. As employers consolidated and got bigger, so did unions. It wasn't intentional; it was a simple cause and effect. The structure lost its soul, as members became less important than the survival of the organization. Those standards may be fine for a business enterprise, but not for an organization whose sole purpose is the workers in it.
There are several forces well outside of labors control that will that will cause further harm than they have already faced:
I read once, bureaucracies can stand for years, even after their death. The labor movement could be the classic example of that statement. It is entirely possible for the tired old structure to be intact and even less meaningful ten years from now. The sad fact is if the leaders in the labor movement don't quickly come to grips with their failures, they will continue the downward spiral into oblivion.
In the mid 50's the labor movement peaked at about 35% of the labor force organized. They were the voice of all workers. Today, even with public sector (police, fire, teachers, state, county and federal employees) included, we are at about 13%. Try as we may, we no longer influence the labor markets. Non-union employers more so affect our ability to bargain, rather than vice-a-versa.
If today's Union leaders recognize the fact they have become inconsequential, we won't have to wait for a total collapse. I'm afraid they are not that smart, and certainly not that unselfish. My sense is, by the year 2012, the labor movement will cease to exist as we know it. The shell will be there, but all it will take is for someone to kick it over, and then they will mercifully disappear.
The famous labor song, Solidarity Forever, contains the ever so apt descriptive solution; "From The Ashes Of The Old." It's also the title of an exceptional book by historian/teacher Stanley Aronowitz. Both are perfect in describing the future, and what will be for working women and men.
From the beginning of time, people have understood the importance of the collective. While many celebrate the demise of communism and socialism for the rugged individualism we are so in awe of, it won't last. Even as we speak, there is a silent revolution of collectivism, unseen by many. Every day in this country, millions of folks gather to share stories, experiences and offer help to perfect strangers. The Internet has bred a rebirth of humanism not seen in years.
That will be the nexus of the next Labor Movement. It goes much deeper though. On screen, activities are limiting. The outgrowth of this new movement will be based on major societal changes. Our aging population (remember the boomer factor) coupled with increasing Internet dependency will render the big box boom meaningless. Smaller tighter communities will evolve, where the people living in them will become dependent on one another. The growing number of have-nots will pose enormous problems on our society. Recognizing the depth of the divide, social and economic justice will become the solution and salvation of mankind. Communities will become the source and the center of the rebirth.
That's where and when the new labor movement will emerge. By the year 2020, organized labor will have a new face. It will not be about collecting dues and touting opinions by highly paid union officials over impressed by what they say or don't do. They will be community driven organizations acting in concert with like-minded groups from around the world. They will become a Movement in the truest sense of the word, as the masses of members, all working and living in one place will belong. They will unite and use the net to change the way employers operate. They will use the old IWW (Wobblies) technique of starving out employers whose motivation is nothing but profit. The Union will become the base for all social agendas, from health care to pensions to child-care and virtually every other social need.
Almost from its earliest roots, naysayers have been predicting its
demise. I am convinced we will be a far more vibrant and vital part of our
society, but it won't be without a fair amount of pain and hardships on
the workers. In the end, it will be worth it. Today's labor movement isn't
capable of being what it needs to be to have a positive impact on the
lives of its members or workers who have no representation. Tomorrows will
be.